Lapho isexwayiso sokwanda kwamasonto onke kwamathani angu-93000 ku-LME (London Metal Exchange) izitifiketi zokusungula ze-aluminium sihlangabezana nokwehliswa kuka-Moody kwesilinganiso esizimele sase-US, imakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke ibhekene nokuklinywa okukabili "kokuhlinzeka nokufunwa" kanye "nesiphepho sezezimali". Ngomhla ka-May 20, amanani entengo ye-aluminium asondele ezingeni eliyinhloko lokusekela lika-$ 2450 ngaphansi kwengcindezi emibili yezinto zobuchwepheshe kanye neziyisisekelo, futhi imakethe yayisemaphethelweni - uma leli zinga lentengo liphulwa, isikhukhula sokuthengisa okuhleliwe kokuhweba kungase kubhale kabusha ngokuphelele umkhuba wesikhashana.

I-Inventory Movement: I-Malaysian Warehouse Iba 'Idepho Yezinhlamvu' Engenalutho

Idatha yaleli sonto yokusungula ye-aluminium ye-LME ibangele isiphithiphithi emakethe: isamba samasonto onke sezindawo zokugcina izimpahla ezibhalisiwe e-Malaysia sikhuphuke ngamathani angu-92950, ​​ukunyuka kwenyanga ngenyanga ngo-127%, okumaka ukwanda okukhulu kwamaviki onke kusukela ngo-2023.imakethe ye-aluminium– umehluko wentengo ephambene wenkontileka kaMeyi/Juni (okwamanje ephakeme kunentengo edluliselwe phambili) inwetshiwe yaba ngu-$45/ton, futhi izindleko zokunwetshwa okufushane zakhuphukela endaweni ephakeme kakhulu yonyaka.

Incazelo ye-Trader: “Ukunyakaza okungavamile ezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla zase-Malaysia kungase kusho ukuvezwa kwempahla efihliwe, kuhlanganiswe nokungena kwama-ingots ase-Chinese aluminium ohlelweni lwe-LME, izikhundla ezimfushane zisebenzisa ingcindezi yezindleko zokunwetshwa ukuphoqa izikhundla ezinde ukunciphisa ukulahlekelwa.

Isivunguvungu sokulinganisa: I-Moody's' ihlanganisa 'ikhulisa ukwethuka kwe-liquidity

I-Moody's yehlise umbono wezilinganiso ezizimele zase-US zisuka “ezizinzile” zaya “ezimbi”, ezingazange zibe nomthelela oqondile ezizindaweni eziyisisekelo zemakethe ye-aluminium, kodwa zibangele ukukhuphuka kwenani lamadola aseMelika isikhathi esifushane, okufaka ingcindezi ehlangene ezimpahleni zamadola aseMelika. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, ukwehla kwesilinganiso kungase kwenyuse inzuzo yamabhondi e-US Treasury bond, kukhuphule ngokungaqondile izindleko zezimali zomhlaba wonke, okubulala kakhulu izimboni ezisebenzisa imali enkulu njenge-aluminium.

Abahlaziyi baxwayisa ngokuthi ngaphansi kokulindela ukuqiniswa kokusetshenziswa kwezimali, isikhundla sokutholwa kwezimali ze-CTA (umeluleki wezohwebo) singase sibe indawo enkulu engozini. ”

Okuguquguqukayo kwamaShayina: Ukukhiqizwa okuphezulu okusha ngokumelene nobusika bezindlu ezithengiswayo

Ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium eyinhloko yaseShayina kufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.65 ngo-April, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-6.7%, okubeka umlando omusha womlando. Kodwa-ke, idatha yendawo engaphansi komfula iveza "isibhakabhaka esiphindwe kabili seqhwa nomlilo": kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Ephreli, indawo esanda kuqaliswa yezindlu yehle ngo-26.3% unyaka nonyaka, futhi izinga lokukhula kwendawo eqediwe lehla laya ku-17%. Isikhathi esiphezulu sendabuko “segolide, isiliva, nezine” asikho esimweni esihle.

Ukuphikiswa kokunikezwayo nokufunwa: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona ilangabi lesithando somlilo ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, futhi ngakolunye uhlangothi, kunomoya obandayo ohlangothini lwesidingo. Imakethe ye-aluminium yaseShayina ivaleleke emjikelezweni ononya "wokukhiqiza okwengeziwe, insalela eyengeziwe". Umhwebi kahulumeni we-aluminium washo ngokungananazi, “Manje kuwo wonke amathani e-aluminium akhiqizwayo, kukhona isitini esengeziwe ohlwini lwamagama.

Umdlalo Wesikhungo: Ingabe “Isiteki Esiphezulu Se-Aluminium YaseRussia” se-Mercuria sahlangana ne-Waterloo?

Amahemuhemu ezimakethe aphakamisa ukuthi isu elide lesikhondlakhondla seMercuria lokubheja kakhulu ekususweni kwezinhlawulo ze-aluminium yaseRussia libhekene novivinyo olunzima. Ngokuncishiswa okulindelekile konswinyo lwase-US ku-aluminium yaseRussia kanye nengcindezi yokusungula i-LME, ukubamba kwayo kungase kube nokulahlekelwa okungaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-$100.

Abahwebi badalula: “Isimo esibucayi se-Mercuria sibonisa imakethe yokubiza kabusha kwamaphrimiyamu ezwe, ngezintengo ze-aluminium ezibuya 'kumalini wempi' ukuya' emalini eyeqile '.

Isexwayiso sobuchwepheshe: Ulayini wempilo nokufa ongu-$2450 ubhekene novivinyo olukhulu

Kusukela kuvalwa ngoMeyi 20, izintengo ze-aluminium ye-LME zaziku-$2465 ngethani, isinyathelo esisodwa nje ukusuka ezingeni eliyinhloko lokusekela lika-$2450. Abahlaziyi bezobuchwepheshe baxwayisa ngokuthi uma intengo iwela ngaphansi kwaleli zinga, izobangela ukulahlekelwa okukhulu kokumiswa kokuthengisa ngezimali ze-CTA, futhi izinga elilandelayo eliqondiwe lingafinyelela ngokuqondile ku-$2300.

I-Long Short Duel: Ikamu le-bearish lisebenzisa ukukhuphuka kwempahla kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka njengomkhonto, kuyilapho ikamu le-bullish ligxile ezindlekweni zamandla aphezulu kanye nesidingo sokuguqulwa okuluhlaza njengesihlangu. Umphumela walo mdlalo ungase unqume ukuqondiswa kwemakethe ye-aluminium ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezizayo.

Isiphetho

Kusukela "ekuqhumeni kwebhomu" endaweni yokugcina impahla yaseMalaysia kuya esiphephweni sokulinganisa eWashington, kusukela "ekukhuleni kwamandla" kwezitshalo ze-aluminium zaseShayina kuya "ekuhlulekeni kokugembula budedengu" kweMercuria, imakethe ye-aluminium imi empambanweni yemigwaqo engakaze ibonwe eminyakeni eyishumi. Inzuzo noma ukulahlekelwa kwe-$ 2450 akugcini nje ngokuphathelene nesivinini sokuhweba ngohlelo, kodwa futhi ihlola ukubuyiswa kwemboni yokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke - ukuphela kwalesi siphepho sensimbi kungenzeka ukuthi kusanda kuqala.