Lokacin da gargadi na mako-mako karuwa na 93000 ton a LME (London Metal Exchange) aluminum kaya takardun shaida hadu da Moody ta downgrade na US sovereign rating, da duniya aluminum kasuwar ne fuskantar dual strangulation na "saro da bukatar" da "kudi hadari". A ranar 20 ga Mayu, farashin aluminum ya kusanci matakin tallafin maɓalli na $ 2450 a ƙarƙashin matsin lamba biyu na fasaha da mahimmanci, kuma kasuwa ta kasance a kan gaba - da zarar wannan matakin farashin ya keta, ambaliya na tallace-tallacen da aka tsara na iya sake rubutawa gabaɗaya yanayin ɗan gajeren lokaci.

Motsin Inventory: Warehouse na Malaysian Ya Zama Wurin Ma'ajiyar Harsashi Babu komai.

Bayanai na kayan aluminium na LME na wannan makon sun haifar da hayaniyar kasuwa: ƙididdigar mako-mako na ɗakunan ajiya masu rijista a Malaysia sun karu da ton 92950, ​​wata ɗaya a kan karuwar 127%, wanda ke nuna haɓaka mafi girma na mako-mako tun 2023. Wannan anomaly kai tsaye ya gurbata tsarin ƙimar ƙimar tabo.kasuwar aluminium- bambancin farashin kwangilar Mayu / Yuni (wanda a halin yanzu ya fi farashin gaba) ya faɗaɗa zuwa $ 45 / ton, kuma farashin ɗan gajeren tsawo ya karu zuwa mafi girman matsayi na shekara.

Fassarar 'yan kasuwa: "Matsalar da ba ta dace ba a cikin ɗakunan ajiya na Malaysia na iya nuna bayyanar ɓoyayyun kaya, haɗe tare da kwararar kayan aluminium na kasar Sin a cikin tsarin LME, gajerun matsayi suna amfani da matsa lamba na farashin tsawo don tilasta matsayi mai tsawo don yanke asara."

Guguwar kima: Moody's' patching up' yana ƙara firgita ruwa

Moody's ya rage hangen nesa ga kimar ikon mallakar Amurka daga “barga” zuwa “mara kyau”, wanda bai yi tasiri kai tsaye ga tushen kasuwar aluminium ba, amma ya haifar da hauhawar ɗan gajeren lokaci a cikin index ɗin dalar Amurka, yana sanya matsin lamba ga samfuran da aka ƙima da dalar Amurka. Mafi mahimmanci, raguwar ƙima na iya haɓaka haɓakar haƙƙin haƙƙin baitul-mali na Amurka, a kaikaice yana haɓaka farashin kuɗi na duniya, wanda ke da haɗari musamman ga manyan masana'antu kamar aluminum.

Manazarta sun yi gargadin cewa a karkashin tsammanin ƙarfafa yawan ruwa, matsayin damar yin amfani da kuɗin CTA (mai ba da shawara kan ciniki) na iya zama babban haɗari. ”

Canje-canje na kasar Sin: Sabon babban samarwa da yanayin hunturu

Aikin farko na aluminium na kasar Sin ya kai tan miliyan 3.65 a cikin watan Afrilu, karuwar karuwar kashi 6.7% a duk shekara, wanda ya kafa sabon tarihi. Koyaya, bayanan ƙasa na ƙasa suna ba da “sararin kankara da wuta sau biyu”: daga Janairu zuwa Afrilu, sabon rukunin gidaje da aka fara ya ragu da kashi 26.3% a duk shekara, kuma yawan ci gaban yankin da aka kammala ya ragu zuwa 17%. Yanayin kololuwar gargajiya na "zinariya, azurfa, da huɗu" ba su da kyau.

Sabanin samarwa da buƙatu: A gefe ɗaya, akwai wutar tanderu mai fashewa a gefen wadata, kuma a gefe guda, akwai iska mai sanyi a ɓangaren buƙata. Kasuwar aluminium ta kasar Sin tana cikin mummunan yanayi na "ƙarin samarwa, ƙarin rara". Wani dan kasuwan aluminium mallakin gwamnati ya furta a hankali, “Yanzu ga kowane tan na alluminum da ake samarwa, akwai ƙarin bulo a cikin kaya.

Wasan cibiyoyi: Shin Mercuria's "Babban hannun jarin Aluminum na Rasha" ya ci karo da Waterloo?

Jita-jitar kasuwa ta nuna cewa doguwar dabarun katafaren kamfanin Mercuria na yin fare sosai kan dage takunkumin da aka kakaba mata na aluminium na Rasha na fuskantar wani gwaji mai tsanani. Tare da tsammanin sassauta takunkumin Amurka kan aluminum na Rasha da kuma matsin lamba kan kayayyaki na LME, hannun jari na iya samun asarar da ya wuce dala miliyan 100.

‘Yan kasuwa sun bayyana cewa: “Matsalar Mercuria tana nuna yadda kasuwa ke yin kima da kima na geopolitical premiums, tare da farashin aluminium da ke dawowa daga 'kuɗin yaƙi' zuwa' hauhawar farashi '

Faɗakarwar fasaha: Layin rayuwa da mutuwa $2450 na fuskantar gwaji na ƙarshe

Ya zuwa ƙarshen ranar 20 ga Mayu, farashin aluminium na LME ya kasance a $2465 kowace ton, mataki ɗaya kawai daga matakin tallafin maɓalli na $2450. Manazarta fasaha sun yi gargadin cewa idan farashin ya fadi kasa da wannan matakin, zai haifar da asarar asarar da aka yi ta hanyar kudaden CTA, kuma matakin da ake bukata na gaba zai iya kai $2300 kai tsaye.

Dogon Duel Duel mai tsayi: sansanin bearish yana amfani da haɓakawa a cikin kaya da ƙarancin buƙata azaman mashi, yayin da sansanin bullish ya mai da hankali kan tsadar kuzari da buƙatun canjin kore a matsayin garkuwa. Sakamakon wannan wasan na iya ƙayyade jagorancin kasuwar aluminum a cikin watanni shida masu zuwa.

Kammalawa

Daga "bam na kaya" a cikin ma'ajiyar Malaysian zuwa guguwar kima a Washington, daga "ƙaramar haɓaka" na shuke-shuken aluminium na kasar Sin zuwa "rashin caca mara kyau" na Mercuria, kasuwar aluminum tana tsaye a tsaka-tsakin da ba a gani ba a cikin shekaru goma. Riba ko asarar $ 2450 ba kawai ya shafi saurin ciniki na shirye-shirye ba, har ma yana gwada dawo da masana'antun masana'antu na duniya - ƙarshen wannan guguwar ƙarfe na iya fara farawa.